Wedbush Analyst: Anthropic in a 'Tug of War' with Trump Administration

Wedbush Analyst: Anthropic in 'Tug of War' with Trump Administration

Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities called negotiations between Anthropic and the American government a 'tug of war' — and predicted an acceleration of M&A activity in the AI sector against the backdrop of published data on OpenAI's losses.

Anthropic Between Washington and the Market

Ives characterizes Anthropic's negotiations with the Trump administration as a tense balance of interests. The company is developing some of the most advanced AI systems in the world — and American authorities view it as a strategic asset. But any strengthening of government participation inevitably raises questions about research independence and partnership terms.

"This is a tug of war," — that's how Ives characterized the negotiations between Anthropic and Washington in an interview with Bloomberg.

According to the analyst, on one hand — Washington's interest in keeping cutting-edge AI technologies "at home"; on the other — Anthropic's desire to maintain autonomy in development. A possible deal would reshape the balance of power in the industry, especially given that Anthropic remains one of the few major AI players maintaining independence from Microsoft, Google, and Meta.

M&A: The Wave Has Just Begun

Ives predicts that the next 12–18 months will be a peak period for mergers and acquisitions in AI space. His logic: large technology companies cannot build advanced AI capabilities from scratch at the pace set by the market, and will prefer to buy ready-made assets.

• Independent model labs become the primary targets for acquisition
• Infrastructure assets — data, compute, fine-tuning platforms — are in buyers' priority
• Tech giants strengthen AI portfolios through deals instead of organic growth
• AI startup valuations are rising, narrowing the window for relatively cheap acquisitions
• Regulatory uncertainty further accelerates market consolidation

Ives sees in this process not just financial transactions, but a reformatting of the entire technology market for the next decade.

OpenAI Losses on the Eve of IPO

Bloomberg reported significant operating losses at OpenAI — and this happens right before the company's expected public market debut. Ives acknowledges: the situation is delicate. Public investors traditionally react painfully to losses at technology companies claiming high valuations. Nevertheless, appetite for AI assets remains high.

Recent closed rounds valued OpenAI above $150 billion — this suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for expected growth, even accepting current losses. But the public market is another story: it requires transparency and at least a vector toward profitability.

Ives believes this question will be central at the IPO roadshow.

What It Means

The AI industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a phase of institutional maturity. States want to control key technologies, corporations want to consolidate assets, and public investors want to see real financial metrics. Anthropic, OpenAI, and other key players are responding to all three challenges simultaneously — and this defines the new norm of AI business.

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